RFPL Stock Analysis: Technical & Fundamental Breakdown

 📈 RFPL Stock Analysis: Technical & Fundamental Breakdown

By Bigesh Pradhan | June 2025

The Nepali stock market has recently seen renewed interest in micro-cap and hydropower companies. Among them, Rasuwagadhi Hydropower Company Limited (RFPL) has been generating buzz. In this blog, we’ll explore the technical and fundamental aspects of RFPL to help you decide if it’s worth watching—or buying.

🔍 Fundamental Analysis of RFPL

1. Company Overview:
RFPL is involved in the construction and operation of a 111 MW Rasuwagadhi Hydropower Project. It is a government-promoted venture and is under the Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA).

2. Shareholding Structure:

  • Government & NEA: Majority stake

  • Public & Local investors: Significant presence through IPO and local allotments

3. Financial Highlights (As of FY 2080/81):

  • Revenue: Project still under construction, so minimal operating income

  • Net Profit/Loss: Still in the pre-revenue phase, recording losses due to construction costs

  • Book Value Per Share: Approx. NPR 98–102 (est.)

  • EPS: Negative due to ongoing project development

4. Strengths:

  • Government-backed project ensures high credibility

  • Long-term cash flow potential post-operation

  • Part of the 111 MW Upper Trishuli-1 corridor—strategic significance

5. Risks:

  • No current revenue; return depends on project completion

  • Interest burden and project delays can hurt investor sentiment

  • Subject to NEA and regulatory dependency

📊 Technical Analysis of RFPL (As of June 2025)

1. Current Price Action:

  • Last Traded Price (LTP): NPR 314

  • 52-Week High/Low: NPR 430 / NPR 240

  • The stock has been consolidating around the 300–320 zone with occasional spikes on volume.

2. Trend Indicators:

  • 200-Day Moving Average (MA): Around NPR 300 — acting as a support

  • 50-Day MA: Trending slightly upward — positive short-term sentiment

  • MACD: Recently crossed the signal line upwards — bullish crossover

  • RSI (14-day): ~62 — neutral to slightly bullish zone

3. Volume Analysis:

  • Spikes in volume during green candle sessions indicate accumulation

  • Lower volumes during corrections = healthy consolidation

4. Support and Resistance:

  • Support Zone: NPR 295–305

  • Resistance Zone: NPR 340–360

  • A breakout above NPR 360 could indicate a rally toward 400+ levels

📌 Investment Outlook

Short-Term (1–3 months):
RFPL is suitable for swing trades if bought near support zones and sold near resistance levels. Traders should monitor volume and RSI.

Long-Term (1–3 years):
A good option for long-term investors once the hydropower plant begins operation. Once revenue starts flowing, the valuation may significantly re-rate.

🧠 Final Thoughts

RFPL is a classic example of a “story stock” — strong future prospects but limited present earnings. Patience is key. If you believe in Nepal’s hydropower boom and government-backed infrastructure, RFPL can be a potential long-term bet. For now, it's more suitable for informed and risk-tolerant investors.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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